Over the past several weeks, I have had several debates regarding this year's NFL Draft. The most common topic has been what my hometown Cleveland Browns should do with the #4 overall pick this year. Personally, I think they should either take a quarterback, or trade out. I'll admit that I'm not 100% sold on this year's crop of top quarterbacks, but it doesn't change my mind. Even the biggest Brian Hoyer fan would have to admit that the Browns need a franchise quarterback for the future. After reading the data I've compiled on this topic, it would be hard to argue that taking a quarterback anywhere outside of the top 4 has any value.
I have identified below what I believe to be the top 20 quarterbacks currently in the NFL. If you want to argue over #20 versus #21 or #22, you're wasting your time. Only 12 teams makes the playoffs, so at least 8 of these guys aren't getting you to the promised land anyways. And since there are 32 teams in the league, 4 of them play on a team in the bottom half of the league. So really, is it important who is 19, 20, 21, 22? I didn't think so. Here is my list:
| Denver | Peyton Manning |
| Green Bay | Aaron Rodgers |
| New England | Tom Brady |
| New Orleans | Drew Brees |
| Atlanta | Matt Ryan |
| Baltimore | Joe Flacco |
| Chicago | Jay Cutler |
| Dallas | Tony Romo |
| Detroit | Matt Stafford |
| Indianapolis | Andrew Luck |
| NY Giants | Eli Manning |
| Pittsburgh | Ben Roethlisberger |
| San Diego | Philip Rivers |
| Carolina | Cam Newton |
| Cincinnati | Andy Dalton |
| Kansas City | Alex Smith |
| San Francisco | Colin Kaepernick |
| Seattle | Russell Wilson |
| Washington | Robert Griffin III |
| St. Louis | Sam Bradford |
I would like to point out that this group is in no particular order. For argument's sake, here are the remaining quarterbacks:
| Arizona | Carson Palmer |
| Buffalo | EJ Manuel |
| Cleveland | Brian Hoyer |
| Houston | Matt Schaub |
| Jacksonville | Chad Henne / Blaine Gabbert |
| Miami | Ryan Tannehill |
| Minnesota | Christian Ponder / Matt Cassel |
| NY Jets | Geno Smith |
| Oakland | Terrelle Pryor |
| Philadelphia | Nick Foles |
| Tampa Bay | Josh Freeman |
| Tennessee | Ryan Fitzpatrick / Jake Locker |
Now that we have established the top quarterbacks currently playing, let's take a look at the previous drafts and where each of these guys were selected. I have compiled a list of all the quarterbacks drafted in the last 16 years of the NFL Draft. Each name is listed with round selected and overall draft number in parenthesis. Why 16 years, you ask? The answer is that every current NFL quarterback was either drafted in the past 16 NFL drafts or was picked up as an undrafted free agent that year.
I have broken the draft down into five phases:
Top 4 Overall Picks
Other First Round Picks
Second Round Picks
Rounds 3-7
Notable Undrafted Free Agents
Here is the list:
Here is the list:
| 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Top 4 | Andrew Luck (1, 1) | Cam Newton (1, 1) | Sam Bradford (1, 1) | Matthew Stafford (1, 1) | Matt Ryan (1, 3) | JaMarcus Russell (1,1) | Vince Young (1, 3) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Robert Griffin III (1, 2) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1st Round | EJ Manuel (1, 16) | Ryan Tannehill (1, 8) | Jake Locker (1, 8) | Tim Tebow (1, 25) | Mark Sanchez (1, 5) | Joe Flacco (1, 18) | Brady Quinn (1, 22) | Matt Leinart (1, 10) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Brandon Weeden (1, 22) | Blaine Gabbert (1, 10) | Josh Freeman (1, 17) | Jay Cutler (1, 11) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Christian Ponder (1, 12) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2nd Round | Geno Smith (2, 39) | Brock Osweiler (2, 57) | Andy Dalton (2, 35) | Jimmy Clausen (2, 48) | Pat White (2, 44) | Brian Brohm (2, 56) | Kevin Kolb (2, 36) | Kellen Clemens (2, 49) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Colin Kaepernick (2, 36) | Chad Henne (2, 57) | John Beck (2, 40) | Tarvaris Jackson (2, 64) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Drew Stanton (2, 43) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Others | Mike Glennon (3, 73) | Russell Wilson (3, 75) | Ryan Mallett (3, 74) | Colt McCoy (3, 85) | Stephen McGee (4, 101) | Kevin O'Connell (3, 94) | Trent Edwards (3, 92) | Charlie Whitehurst (3, 81) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Matt Barkley (4, 98) | Terrelle Pryor (3, *SP) | Ricky Stanzi (5, 135) | Mike Kafka (4, 122) | Rhett Bomar (5, 151) | John David Booty (5, 137) | Isaiah Stanback (4, 103) | Brodie Croyle (3, 85) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ryan Nassib (4, 110) | Nick Foles (3, 88) | T. J. Yates (5, 152) | John Skelton (5, 155) | Nate Davis (5, 171) | Dennis Dixon (5, 156) | Jeff Rowe (5, 151) | Brad Smith (4, 103) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tyler Wilson (4, 112) | Kirk Cousins (4, 102) | Nathan Enderle (5, 160) | Jonathan Crompton (5, 168) | Tom Brandstater (6, 174) | Josh Johnson (5, 160) | Troy Smith (5, 174) | Ingle Martin (5, 148) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Landry Jones (4, 115) | Ryan Lindley (6, 185) | Tyrod Taylor (6, 180) | Rusty Smith (6, 176) | Mike Teel (6, 178) | Erik Ainge (5, 162) | Jordan Palmer (6, 205) | Omar Jacobs (5, 164) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Brad Sorensen (7, 221) | B. J. Coleman (7, 243) | Greg McElroy (7, 208) | Dan LeFevour (6, 181) | Keith Null (6, 196) | Colt Brennan (6, 186) | Tyler Thigpen (7, 217) | Reggie McNeal (6, 193) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Zac Dysert (7, 234) | Chandler Harnish (7, 253) | Joe Webb (6, 199) | Curtis Painter (6, 201) | Andre' Woodson (6, 198) | Bruce Gradkowski (6, 194) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| B. J. Daniels (7, 237) | Tony Pike (6, 204) | Matt Flynn (7, 209) | D. J. Shockley (7, 223) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sean Renfree (7, 249) | Levi Brown (6, 209) | Alex Brink (7, 223) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sean Canfield (7, 239) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Zac Robinson (7, 250) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Undrafted | Matthew McGloin | Scott Tolzien | Brian Hoyer | Matt Moore | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chase Daniel | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Top 4 | Alex Smith (1, 1) | Eli Manning (1, 1) | Carson Palmer (1, 1) | David Carr (1, 1) | Michael Vick (1, 1) | Tim Couch (1, 1) | Peyton Manning (1, 1) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Philip Rivers (1, 4) | Joey Harrington (1, 3) | Donovan McNabb (1, 2) | Ryan Leaf (1, 2) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Akili Smith (1, 3) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1st Round | Aaron Rodgers (1, 24) | Ben Roethlisberger (1, 11) | Byron Leftwich (1, 7) | Patrick Ramsey (1, 32) | Chad Pennington (1, 18) | Daunte Culpepper (1,11) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Jason Campbell (1, 25) | J. P. Losman (1, 22) | Kyle Boller (1, 19) | Cade McNown (1,12) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rex Grossman (1, 22) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2nd Round | Drew Brees (2, 32) | Shaun King (2, 50) | Charlie Batch (2, 60) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Quincy Carter (2, 53) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Marques Tuiasosopo (2, 59) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Others | Charlie Frye (3, 67) | Matt Schaub (3, 90) | Dave Ragone (3, 88) | Josh McCown (3, 81) | Chris Weinke (4, 106) | Giovanni Carmazzi (3, 65) | Brock Huard (3, 77) | Jonathan Quinn (3, 86) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Andrew Walter (3, 69) | Luke McCown (4, 106) | Chris Simms (3, 97) | David Garrard (4, 108) | Sage Rosenfels (4, 109) | Chris Redman(3, 75) | Joe Germaine (4, 101) | Brian Griese (3, 91) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| David Greene (3, 85) | Craig Krenzel (5, 148) | Seneca Wallace (4, 110) | Rohan Davey (4, 117) | Jesse Palmer (4, 125) | Tee Martin(5, 162) | Aaron Brooks (4, 131) | John Dutton (6, 172) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Kyle Orton (4, 106) | Andy Hall (6, 185) | Brian St. Pierre (5, 163) | Randy Fasani (5, 137) | Mike McMahon (5, 149) | Marc Bulger (6, 168) | Kevin Daft (5, 151) | Matt Hasselbeck (6, 187) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stefan LeFors (4, 121) | Josh Harris (6, 187) | Drew Henson (6, 192) | Kurt Kittner (5, 158) | A. J. Feeley (5, 155) | Spergon Wynn (6, 183) | Michael Bishop (7, 227) | Moses Moreno (7, 232) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dan Orlovsky (5, 145) | Jim Sorgi (6, 193) | Brooks Bollinger (6, 200) | Brandon Doman (5, 163) | Josh Booty (6, 172) | Tom Brady (6, 199) | Chris Greisen (7, 239) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Adrian McPherson (5, 152) | Jeff Smoker (6, 201) | Kliff Kingsbury (6, 201) | Craig Nall (5, 164) | Josh Heupel (6, 177) | Todd Husak (6, 202) | Scott Covington (7, 245) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Derek Anderson (6, 213) | John Navarre (7, 202) | Gibran Hamdan (7, 232) | J. T. O'Sullivan (6, 186) | JaJuan Seider (6, 205) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| James Kilian (7, 229) | Cody Pickett (7, 217) | Ken Dorsey (7, 241) | Steve Bellisari (6, 205) | Tim Rattay (7, 212) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Matt Cassel (7, 230) | Casey Bramlet (7, 218) | Seth Burford (7, 216) | Jarious Jackson (7, 214) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ryan Fitzpatrick (7, 250) | Matt Mauck (7, 225) | Jeff Kelly (7, 232) | Joe Hamilton (7, 234) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| B. J. Symons (7, 248) | Wes Pate (7, 236) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bradlee Van Pelt (7, 250) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Undrafted | Tony Romo | Chad Hutchinson | Billy Volek | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Shaun Hill | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| *SP - Oakland used their 2011 Supplemental Pick on Terrelle Pryor. They forfeited their 3rd Round Draft pick for 2012. That, my friends, is quite a few quarterbacks.
Going back to my previous list of the top 20 current NFL quarterbacks, I have calculated the likelihood
of selecting one of them in each of the five phases over the past 16 seasons.
There are other notable elite level quarterbacks that are not currently playing, but were involved in the
past 16 draft classes. For argument's sake, I'm suggesting that another five quarterbacks could have been considered "elite." They are Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick, Carson Palmer, Daunte Culpepper and Matt Hasselbeck. For purposes of this discussion, I'm considering "elite" to mean that these five quarterbacks either consistently took their teams to the playoffs or they achieved statistics for a minimum of five seasons that would have rivaled the top quarterbacks in the NFL at the time. In actuality, I believe that the "elite" label should be reserved only for the upper echelon. With that said, it would be absurd to leave these five names off the list if we are including Sam Bradford and Andy Dalton and Alex Smith. Based on that information, the previous 16 NFL drafts would then look more like this:
One of the popular myths in the NFL is that there are a ton of "busts" when drafting a quarterback in the top 4. Names like Tim Couch, Ryan Leaf and JaMarcus Russell are often the first to be mentioned. I would agree that some of the top picks have failed to live up to their hype, but neither did a bunch of other first round quarterbacks. The fact is that there are plenty of quarterbacks taken in rounds 2-7 that most of you have never heard of. So I ask, what is the bigger risk? According to these numbers, you have a nearly 2 in 3 chance of getting an elite quarterback if you take one in the top 4. You would only have a 1 in 5 chance if you were to draft a quarterback anywhere else in the first round. The number of second round picks is a little misleading. Drew Brees was taken #32 overall, which in today's draft would be a first round selection. Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick were taken with the 3rd and 4th picks of the second round. You could make the argument that each of these three could have easily been first round choices if the teams drafting at the end of the first round needed a quarterback. But since those teams are playoff teams, they most likely already had an elite quarterback. That dropped these guys back to a group that didn't get one of the top quarterbacks available and merely selected the "best player available" instead. Overall in the second round 1 in 6 draft picks became elite quarterbacks, but none were outside of the first four picks. As for rounds 3-7, there are certainly some nice stories. Everyone wants to point out Tom Brady and how he is likely one of the top quarterbacks in the history of the game. Matt Hasselbeck and Russell Wilson have also made names for themselves and each led Seattle to Super Bowl appearances. The fact is that for every elite quarterback found in rounds 3-7, there are 45 other quarterbacks that either became career back-ups or never took a snap. And finally, the number for undrafted quarterbacks is extremely misleading. I only listed nine undrafted quarterbacks in the past 16 years, but in reality there are probably over 1,500. And that's just including Division I-A! Think of every college quarterback that never even got a sniff of the NFL. Tony Romo was undrafted and played his college ball at Eastern Illinois. Guys like Romo and Kurt Warner don't come along often and are not something you can bank on. There you have it. The NFL draft broken down from the quarterback position. Based on this data, you could make the argument that drafting a quarterback outside of the first round should never happen. If I were an NFL GM, I would make that my policy. If you don't think he's good enough to go in the first round, then (with apologies to Brady and Wilson) he's not likely a guy that will make you a contender. Personally, I would take it one step farther and only take a quarterback if you have a top 4 pick. The odds just don't favor taking one anywhere else. Let the other teams in the NFL draft quarterbacks outside of the top 4. Plenty of them will get developed and become suitable back-ups in the league. You can always pick these guys up as free agents. But elite quarterbacks? They rarely, if ever, become free agents. Peyton Manning and Tony Romo are the only quarterbacks in the top 20 that were acquired via free agency. I think everyone would agree that they are both special circumstances. Peyton Manning had a near career ending surgery and Tony Romo went undrafted mainly because he played at tiny Eastern Illinois. Now, I want to make it clear, I'm not advocating for the Cleveland Browns to select a quarterback with the #4 overall choice this year. If you look closely, there are a handful of years that an argument can be made for not a single NFL caliber quarterback being out there. It is the Browns front office that has the responsibility of evaluating Bridgewater, Manziel and Bortles. However, if you do have them evaluated as a top 4 prospect, then why wouldn't you take them? You have a 65% chance of finding the piece that could get you over the top. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
I think the Browns should take Bortles with the 4th pick. Have him sit a year or two behind hoyer and learn. He is not a franchise quarterback yet, but definitely has a lot of potential to be. The Browns have a lot of holes to fill, but you don't win a Super Bowl without a franchise QB! Great blog!!
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