If a QB falls out of the Top 4, should he hear his name called?

Over the past several weeks, I have had several debates regarding this year's NFL Draft. The most common topic has been what my hometown Cleveland Browns should do with the #4 overall pick this year. Personally, I think they should either take a quarterback, or trade out. I'll admit that I'm not 100% sold on this year's crop of top quarterbacks, but it doesn't change my mind. Even the biggest Brian Hoyer fan would have to admit that the Browns need a franchise quarterback for the future. After reading the data I've compiled on this topic, it would be hard to argue that taking a quarterback anywhere outside of the top 4 has any value.

I have identified below what I believe to be the top 20 quarterbacks currently in the NFL. If you want to argue over #20 versus #21 or #22, you're wasting your time. Only 12 teams makes the playoffs, so at least 8 of these guys aren't getting you to the promised land anyways. And since there are 32 teams in the league, 4 of them play on a team in the bottom half of the league. So really, is it important who is 19, 20, 21, 22? I didn't think so. Here is my list:

Denver	Peyton Manning
Green Bay	Aaron Rodgers
New England	Tom Brady
New Orleans	Drew Brees
Atlanta	Matt Ryan
Baltimore	Joe Flacco
Chicago	Jay Cutler
Dallas	Tony Romo
Detroit	Matt Stafford
Indianapolis	Andrew Luck
NY Giants	Eli Manning
Pittsburgh	Ben Roethlisberger
San Diego	Philip Rivers
Carolina	Cam Newton
Cincinnati	Andy Dalton
Kansas City	Alex Smith
San Francisco	Colin Kaepernick
Seattle	Russell Wilson
Washington	Robert Griffin III
St. Louis	Sam Bradford

I would like to point out that this group is in no particular order. For argument's sake, here are the remaining quarterbacks:

Arizona	Carson Palmer
Buffalo	EJ Manuel
Cleveland	Brian Hoyer
Houston	Matt Schaub
Jacksonville	Chad Henne / Blaine Gabbert
Miami	Ryan Tannehill
Minnesota	Christian Ponder / Matt Cassel
NY Jets	Geno Smith
Oakland	Terrelle Pryor
Philadelphia	Nick Foles
Tampa Bay	Josh Freeman
Tennessee	Ryan Fitzpatrick / Jake Locker

Now that we have established the top quarterbacks currently playing, let's take a look at the previous drafts and where each of these guys were selected. I have compiled a list of all the quarterbacks drafted in the last 16 years of the NFL Draft. Each name is listed with round selected and overall draft number in parenthesis. Why 16 years, you ask? The answer is that every current NFL quarterback was either drafted in the past 16 NFL drafts or was picked up as an undrafted free agent that year. 

I have broken the draft down into five phases:

Top 4 Overall Picks

Other First Round Picks

Second Round Picks

Rounds 3-7

Notable Undrafted Free Agents

Here is the list:

	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007	2006
Top 4		Andrew Luck (1, 1)	Cam Newton (1, 1)	Sam Bradford (1, 1)	Matthew Stafford (1, 1)	Matt Ryan (1, 3)	JaMarcus Russell (1,1)	Vince Young (1, 3)
		Robert Griffin III (1, 2)
1st Round	EJ Manuel (1, 16)	Ryan Tannehill (1, 8)	Jake Locker (1, 8)	Tim Tebow (1, 25)	Mark Sanchez (1, 5)	Joe Flacco (1, 18)	Brady Quinn (1, 22)	Matt Leinart (1, 10)
		Brandon Weeden (1, 22)	Blaine Gabbert (1, 10)		Josh Freeman (1, 17)			Jay Cutler (1, 11)
			Christian Ponder  (1, 12)
2nd Round	Geno Smith (2, 39)	Brock Osweiler (2, 57)	Andy Dalton (2, 35)	Jimmy Clausen (2, 48)	Pat White (2, 44)	Brian Brohm (2, 56)	Kevin Kolb (2, 36)	Kellen Clemens (2, 49)
			Colin Kaepernick (2, 36)			Chad Henne (2, 57)	John Beck (2, 40)	Tarvaris Jackson (2, 64)
							Drew Stanton (2, 43)
Others	Mike Glennon (3, 73)	Russell Wilson (3, 75)	Ryan Mallett (3, 74)	Colt McCoy (3, 85)	Stephen McGee (4, 101)	Kevin O'Connell (3, 94)	Trent Edwards (3, 92)	Charlie Whitehurst (3, 81)
	Matt Barkley (4, 98)	Terrelle Pryor (3, *SP)	Ricky Stanzi  (5, 135)	Mike Kafka (4, 122)	Rhett Bomar (5, 151)	John David Booty (5, 137)	Isaiah Stanback (4, 103)	Brodie Croyle (3, 85)
	Ryan Nassib (4, 110)	Nick Foles (3, 88)	T. J. Yates (5, 152)	John Skelton (5, 155)	Nate Davis (5, 171)	Dennis Dixon (5, 156)	Jeff Rowe (5, 151)	Brad Smith (4, 103)
	Tyler Wilson (4, 112)	Kirk Cousins (4, 102)	Nathan Enderle (5, 160)	Jonathan Crompton (5, 168)	Tom Brandstater (6, 174)	Josh Johnson (5, 160)	Troy Smith (5, 174)	Ingle Martin (5, 148)
	Landry Jones (4, 115)	Ryan Lindley (6, 185)	Tyrod Taylor (6, 180)	Rusty Smith (6, 176)	Mike Teel (6, 178)	Erik Ainge (5, 162)	Jordan Palmer (6, 205)	Omar Jacobs (5, 164)
	Brad Sorensen (7, 221)	B. J. Coleman (7, 243)	Greg McElroy (7, 208)	Dan LeFevour (6, 181)	Keith Null (6, 196)	Colt Brennan (6, 186)	Tyler Thigpen (7, 217)	Reggie McNeal (6, 193)
	Zac Dysert (7, 234)	Chandler Harnish (7, 253)		Joe Webb (6, 199)	Curtis Painter (6, 201)	Andre' Woodson (6, 198)		Bruce Gradkowski (6, 194)
	B. J. Daniels (7, 237)			Tony Pike (6, 204)		Matt Flynn (7, 209)		D. J. Shockley (7, 223)
	Sean Renfree  (7, 249)			Levi Brown (6, 209)		Alex Brink (7, 223)
				Sean Canfield (7, 239)
				Zac Robinson (7, 250)
Undrafted	Matthew McGloin		Scott Tolzien		Brian Hoyer		Matt Moore
					Chase Daniel
	2005	2004	2003	2002	2001	2000	1999	1998
Top 4	Alex Smith (1, 1)	Eli Manning (1, 1)	Carson Palmer (1, 1)	David Carr (1, 1)	Michael Vick (1, 1)		Tim Couch (1, 1)	Peyton Manning (1, 1)
		Philip Rivers (1, 4)		Joey Harrington (1, 3)			Donovan McNabb (1, 2)	Ryan Leaf (1, 2)
							Akili Smith (1, 3)
1st Round	Aaron Rodgers (1, 24)	Ben Roethlisberger (1, 11)	Byron Leftwich (1, 7)	Patrick Ramsey (1, 32)		Chad Pennington (1, 18)	Daunte Culpepper (1,11)
	Jason Campbell (1, 25)	J. P. Losman (1, 22)	Kyle Boller (1, 19)				Cade McNown (1,12)
			Rex Grossman (1, 22)
2nd Round					Drew Brees (2, 32)		Shaun King (2, 50)	Charlie Batch (2, 60)
					Quincy Carter (2, 53)
					Marques Tuiasosopo (2, 59)
Others	Charlie Frye (3, 67)	Matt Schaub (3, 90)	Dave Ragone (3, 88)	Josh McCown (3, 81)	Chris Weinke (4, 106)	Giovanni Carmazzi (3, 65)	Brock Huard (3, 77)	Jonathan Quinn (3, 86)
	Andrew Walter (3, 69)	Luke McCown (4, 106)	Chris Simms (3, 97)	David Garrard (4, 108)	Sage Rosenfels (4, 109)	Chris Redman(3, 75)	Joe Germaine (4, 101)	Brian Griese (3, 91)
	David Greene (3, 85)	Craig Krenzel (5, 148)	Seneca Wallace (4, 110)	Rohan Davey (4, 117)	Jesse Palmer (4, 125)	Tee Martin(5, 162)	Aaron Brooks (4, 131)	John Dutton (6, 172)
	Kyle Orton (4, 106)	Andy Hall (6, 185)	Brian St. Pierre (5, 163)	Randy Fasani (5, 137)	Mike McMahon (5, 149)	Marc Bulger (6, 168)	Kevin Daft (5, 151)	Matt Hasselbeck (6, 187)
	Stefan LeFors (4, 121)	Josh Harris (6, 187)	Drew Henson (6, 192)	Kurt Kittner (5, 158)	A. J. Feeley (5, 155)	Spergon Wynn (6, 183)	Michael Bishop (7, 227)	Moses Moreno (7, 232)
	Dan Orlovsky (5, 145)	Jim Sorgi (6, 193)	Brooks Bollinger (6, 200)	Brandon Doman (5, 163)	Josh Booty (6, 172)	Tom Brady (6, 199)	Chris Greisen (7, 239)
	Adrian McPherson (5, 152)	Jeff Smoker (6, 201)	Kliff Kingsbury (6, 201)	Craig Nall (5, 164)	Josh Heupel (6, 177)	Todd Husak (6, 202)	Scott Covington (7, 245)
	Derek Anderson (6, 213)	John Navarre (7, 202)	Gibran Hamdan (7, 232)	J. T. O'Sullivan (6, 186)		JaJuan Seider (6, 205)
	James Kilian (7, 229)	Cody Pickett (7, 217)	Ken Dorsey (7, 241)	Steve Bellisari (6, 205)		Tim Rattay (7, 212)
	Matt Cassel (7, 230)	Casey Bramlet (7, 218)		Seth Burford (7, 216)		Jarious Jackson (7, 214)
	Ryan Fitzpatrick (7, 250)	Matt Mauck (7, 225)		Jeff Kelly (7, 232)		Joe Hamilton (7, 234)
		B. J. Symons (7, 248)		Wes Pate (7, 236)
		Bradlee Van Pelt (7, 250)
Undrafted			Tony Romo	Chad Hutchinson		Billy Volek
				Shaun Hill
*SP - Oakland used their 2011 Supplemental Pick on Terrelle Pryor. They forfeited their 3rd Round Draft pick for 2012. That, my friends, is quite a few quarterbacks. Going back to my previous list of the top 20 current NFL quarterbacks, I have calculated the likelihood of selecting one of them in each of the five phases over the past 16 seasons. Current Top 20 Total QB's % Top 4 10 20 50.00% 1st Round 4 24 16.67% 2nd Round 3 18 16.67% Rounds 3-7 2 138 1.45% Undrafted 1 9 11.11% There are other notable elite level quarterbacks that are not currently playing, but were involved in the past 16 draft classes. For argument's sake, I'm suggesting that another five quarterbacks could have been considered "elite." They are Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick, Carson Palmer, Daunte Culpepper and Matt Hasselbeck. For purposes of this discussion, I'm considering "elite" to mean that these five quarterbacks either consistently took their teams to the playoffs or they achieved statistics for a minimum of five seasons that would have rivaled the top quarterbacks in the NFL at the time. In actuality, I believe that the "elite" label should be reserved only for the upper echelon. With that said, it would be absurd to leave these five names off the list if we are including Sam Bradford and Andy Dalton and Alex Smith. Based on that information, the previous 16 NFL drafts would then look more like this: Elite QB Total % Top 4 13 20 65.00% 1st Round 5 24 20.83% 2nd Round 3 18 16.67% Others 3 138 2.17% Undrafted 1 9 11.11% One of the popular myths in the NFL is that there are a ton of "busts" when drafting a quarterback in the top 4. Names like Tim Couch, Ryan Leaf and JaMarcus Russell are often the first to be mentioned. I would agree that some of the top picks have failed to live up to their hype, but neither did a bunch of other first round quarterbacks. The fact is that there are plenty of quarterbacks taken in rounds 2-7 that most of you have never heard of. So I ask, what is the bigger risk? According to these numbers, you have a nearly 2 in 3 chance of getting an elite quarterback if you take one in the top 4. You would only have a 1 in 5 chance if you were to draft a quarterback anywhere else in the first round. The number of second round picks is a little misleading. Drew Brees was taken #32 overall, which in today's draft would be a first round selection. Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick were taken with the 3rd and 4th picks of the second round. You could make the argument that each of these three could have easily been first round choices if the teams drafting at the end of the first round needed a quarterback. But since those teams are playoff teams, they most likely already had an elite quarterback. That dropped these guys back to a group that didn't get one of the top quarterbacks available and merely selected the "best player available" instead. Overall in the second round 1 in 6 draft picks became elite quarterbacks, but none were outside of the first four picks. As for rounds 3-7, there are certainly some nice stories. Everyone wants to point out Tom Brady and how he is likely one of the top quarterbacks in the history of the game. Matt Hasselbeck and Russell Wilson have also made names for themselves and each led Seattle to Super Bowl appearances. The fact is that for every elite quarterback found in rounds 3-7, there are 45 other quarterbacks that either became career back-ups or never took a snap. And finally, the number for undrafted quarterbacks is extremely misleading. I only listed nine undrafted quarterbacks in the past 16 years, but in reality there are probably over 1,500. And that's just including Division I-A! Think of every college quarterback that never even got a sniff of the NFL. Tony Romo was undrafted and played his college ball at Eastern Illinois. Guys like Romo and Kurt Warner don't come along often and are not something you can bank on. There you have it. The NFL draft broken down from the quarterback position. Based on this data, you could make the argument that drafting a quarterback outside of the first round should never happen. If I were an NFL GM, I would make that my policy. If you don't think he's good enough to go in the first round, then (with apologies to Brady and Wilson) he's not likely a guy that will make you a contender. Personally, I would take it one step farther and only take a quarterback if you have a top 4 pick. The odds just don't favor taking one anywhere else. Let the other teams in the NFL draft quarterbacks outside of the top 4. Plenty of them will get developed and become suitable back-ups in the league. You can always pick these guys up as free agents. But elite quarterbacks? They rarely, if ever, become free agents. Peyton Manning and Tony Romo are the only quarterbacks in the top 20 that were acquired via free agency. I think everyone would agree that they are both special circumstances. Peyton Manning had a near career ending surgery and Tony Romo went undrafted mainly because he played at tiny Eastern Illinois. Now, I want to make it clear, I'm not advocating for the Cleveland Browns to select a quarterback with the #4 overall choice this year. If you look closely, there are a handful of years that an argument can be made for not a single NFL caliber quarterback being out there. It is the Browns front office that has the responsibility of evaluating Bridgewater, Manziel and Bortles. However, if you do have them evaluated as a top 4 prospect, then why wouldn't you take them? You have a 65% chance of finding the piece that could get you over the top.

NCAA slows down the slow-down rule

Example number one of changing my mind: Spread Offenses in college football.

It's been nearly ten years since the disaster game my Ohio State Buckeyes played in Ryan Field against Northwestern on a Saturday night in October of 2004. My sister had recently moved to Chicago and we got tickets to see the only football team worth watching in Ohio. We bundled up and excitedly took the train to Evanston "O-H"ing and "I-O"ing the entire way up the purple line. Several hours later we travelled back home in stunned silence after our #7 Buckeyes lost to the Wildcats for the first time in 33 years.

What drove most of Buckeye Nation insane that night was the offense. On countless occasions we were stopped on 3rd or 4th and short. Had we lined up in our traditional Woody Hayes offense, three yards and a cloud of dust style football, the pill may have gone down easier. Maybe. Instead, shock and dismay filled the faces of the visiting fans that filled over 75% of the stadium.

It seemed sacrilegious to have 38 pass attempts and less than 100 total rushing yards. Criminal even. "If you can't line up with your bigs and slam the ball up the middle for one yard, you don't deserve to win." I probably heard that line fifty times that night from the Buckeye faithful. Hell, I must have said it myself at least a dozen times. What nobody in scarlet and grey seemed to understand is why we didn't even try it that way.

I know now what I didn't know then: this was the way of the future. As quarterbacks like Troy Smith, Terrelle Pryor and Braxton Miller have wreaked havoc on Big Ten opponents for the past several years, I have grown to love the system. I guess you love it when it works for you. I hated it that night in Evanston. It doesn't work for you with Justin Zwick at the helm.

Recently, football has changed. Safety, they claim, is the number one concern. "They" being a collection of NCAA and NFL leadership who have a large financial investment in the players, but in most cases not much of a personal one. Rules have been put in place to remove unnecessary contact, to remove dangerous contact. It's all for the best. For the most part, I agree with evolving. Though they have gone overboard at times, I could make the argument for most of the rules they have put in place.

For the past several weeks, the rules committee has been mulling over the prospect of instituting a slow-down rule in college football. This one I can't get behind. You see, with the spread offenses came the hurry up offense. Schools like Oregon, Arizona, Auburn and now my beloved Ohio State have put these systems in place for a reason. They give the offense a tremendous advantage when executed correctly.

Fundamentally, the advantage the offense has always maintained since the beginning of football is that they know where they are going and they know when. The defense's advantage is that they can move before the snap and line-up in any formation with no restrictions. To institute a rule that would force teams to let 10 seconds run off the huddle clock before they snap the ball in my mind cheapens one of the advantages that is supposed to go to the offense.

The argument for the rule is simple and flawed. More plays means more injuries. To this point, nobody has offered any statistical proof of this. As a stat freak, I'd love to see the data. I could make several arguments that it would actually be the opposite. The only another reason I have heard to this point is that football is not meant to be a continuous game. I ask the question, why not? It's origins are based on rugby and soccer. I'd be willing to wager that Walter Camp did not envision a game with nearly a full minute between snaps and five minutes of commercials every time the ball changed possession. 

Urban Meyer made the point on Colin Cowherd's radio show that since he has gone to the up-tempo offense, it has changed the culture of the entire program. 340-pound offense lineman are now 290-310. Everyone is eating healthier, his players are leaner, they have better overall health and fitness. How is any of that bad for our college athletes?

If it's true that more plays means more injuries, I'm quite certain we can find other ways to reduce the number of plays. In the NFL the clock doesn't stop on every first down like it does in college. There is one simple way to reduce the number of plays and speed up the three and a half hour games in the process. 

I have a hard time believing that injuries are truly what concerns guys like Nick Saban and Bret Bielema. If that's the case, why does Alabama play Southern Miss, Florida Atlantic and Western Carolina in 2014. Bielema's Arkansas team plays games against Northern Illinois, UAB and Nicholls State. All of these schools have athletes that are vastly inferior physically to the Crimson Tide and Razorbacks. Odds are Saban and Bielema will run 70-80 plays offensively against them. I'm sure the health and safety of their opponents won't be paramount to them on those Saturday afternoons.

Odds are that the truth behind the justifications for a rule change are much less sophisticated and much more selfish. I don't think they want to change the style of play that has been working for them. Their rosters are made up of guys that are not built that way. Their schemes are not designed for it. Frankly, it would take a lot of work!

From a competition stand point, below is my problem with the proposed rule.

Situation: Alabama is driving for the potential go-ahead touchdown in the national championship game. The clock is running after they complete a pass that is short of the first down. They have zero timeouts and it's 4th and inches. They run to the line and execute a QB sneak that picks up the first down and temporarily stops the clock. Knowing that the game clock will restart as soon as the ball is set, they immediately line up for what will be the last play of the game. 

The huddle clock is 40 seconds in college and starts at the end of the previous play. When the huddle clock starts, there are four seconds left on the clock. The ball is set quickly by the officials and the game clock starts. The huddle clock is still at 35 seconds, so Alabama isn't allowed to snap the ball and the game is over because they haven't let ten seconds run off. What does Nick Saban think about that? 

Knowing the new rule, they simply wouldn't be able to rub the QB sneak. Alabama's QB would need to know that in this situation their only option is to go straight to a long pass into the endzone on 4th and inches.

The way the rules are currently structured, Alabama could get to the line, QB sneak to pick up the first down and then spike the ball to stop the clock. This would give them time to get a proper play called and increase their odds of winning the game. What justice would be served if they weren't given that opportunity? Is someone going to get a concussion because of that?

I'll leave you with a video of one of the most hated coaches in the states of West Virginia and Michigan, which means we love him in Ohio. Rich Rodriguez is running a fast paced offense at Arizona and he's clearly taken a few cheap shots at Nick Saban and Alabama.

Cap's On Tap 2.0

...and we're back.

My last blog post was nearly six years ago. Since that day, I have gone through some serious changes in my life. I left the sports industry for the building industry. I moved to St. Louis, Missouri. I moved to Washington, D.C. I met the love of my life and got engaged. And now, as I begin a new life with her I'm contemplating another career change and another new city.

Why am I restarting the blog? Mostly for my own benefit. I'm not even sure if I will promote this thing. But after being out of the sports world as long as I have been, I miss it. I have a number of friends that are still in the business, spread out across the country, and they keep me connected. It's not the same though. I have a ton of thoughts that need a forum. I feel like I have a distinct perspective on the sports I love because I realized long ago that fans are biased and I didn't want to be one of them.

Don't get me wrong, I'm quite ridiculous about my teams. My fiance can attest to that. In fact, there is nobody that knows me who would suggest that I'm unbiased, but I truly don't believe I am. I don't believe overly passionate fandom and biases are mutually exclusive. I'm hyper critical of the teams I love. And since most of those teams are a bunch of losing franchises, I don't go into arguments blindly arguing for my teams like the average internet troll.

For those that have stumbled upon this site and haven't been to the previous Cap's On Tap, here is a little more about me. I'm from Cleveland, Ohio and I graduated from Miami University in Oxford, Ohio with a Sport Organization degree and Marketing and Coaching minors. I interned in my college's athletic department during the Ben Roethlisberger and Wally Szczerbiak years. I interned in MLS for D.C. United. I held full-time gigs with the Chicago Bulls and Chicago Fire.

More than any of that, I'm a stats freak. I'm a history buff. I'm passionate in my beliefs, yet open minded to new perspectives. I have thoughts that I believe are worth writing down.

So here we go. Welcome back to my internet corner sports tavern.